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What Does Draft Math Foretell About What Jets Might Do with Their Picks?

Stand Pat, Move Up or Down, Trade for Another Player? GM Darren Mougey: 'I Think Everything's on the Table'

Mougey thumb

After a busy offseason, a Jets fan might think that general manager Darren Mougey and his personnel team will settle down for a serene period of pre-draft meetings followed by a nice, quiet nine-player draft.

Then again, maybe not.

"I think everything's on the table," Mougey said at the NFL Annual Meeting last week. "Those are conversations that are ongoing throughout the year. ... I'm always going to pick up the phone."

Mougey hasn't disclosed who he's talking to nor about which if any of the Jets' players and picks might be in play for opponents' players and picks, so none of this story indicates anything about what the Jets may be thinking before and during this year's draft. But the GM has shown some trade traits in his 15 months on the job.

For one thing, the big swap doesn't faze him. He traded away two Jets starters with All-Pro credentials, CB Sauce Gardner and DL Quinnen Williams, on the same day, Nov. 4. And he got great return from Indianapolis for Gardner (a first-rounder this year and one more next year) and from Dallas for Williams (a 2 this year and a 1 in 2027).

6-7 ... Not to Mention 4-5
We wouldn't rule any swap scenarios out because Mougey himself has said that everything is on the table, and the second-year GM has been on a trade tear. Since being hired by the Jets in January 2025, he has executed 12 trades. Eight of the last 10 involved players coming to 1 Jets Drive. The first two trades came in last year's draft — DB Malachi Moore via a fourth-round pick to Philadelphia and DL Tyler Baron on a swap of Rounds 5 and 6 picks with Baltimore.

Another thing: Mougey seems to have a refined sense of the value of day three selections. If he keeps a pick in Rounds 4-7, the players chosen should be able to respond to Jets coaching and their own potential to quickly play important roles. Last season, for instance, fourth-rounder Moore made 14 starts and fifth-rounders Kiko Mauigoa (12 games, 8 starts) and Baron (6 games) contributed to the defensive front seven. If he trades them, he gets good value in return.

Some Pick Package Possibilities
Let's assume the Jets will be inclined to spend their second overall selection on the best player available after QB Fernando Mendoza goes to the Raiders as is widely expected. That leaves several options for tradeups within or into Round 1, with the possibilities courtesy of a standard NFL Trade Value Sheet available on many draftnik websites:

16 and 33 — The Jets could package the 16th overall pick they received from Indy in the Gardner trade and their own 33rd pick, the first of the second round, and move up into the top seven in the draft. Their 1,580 points for their two picks could get them to No. 7 (1,500 points) or even No. 6 (1,600).

16 and 44 — Mougey may really value the top pick of a new day, which 33 would be since it kicks off day two of the draft. What if the Jets were to wrap up 16 and 44 (from the Cowboys) for another deal? That exacta comes in with a value of 1,460 points, which could still propel the Jets into the top eight picks,

33 and 44 — Say the Jets are tempted by a player still available in the second half of Round 1. How high could their two second-rounders elevate them in a trade scenario? Those two picks combine for 1,040 points, which still could lift them as high as the mid-first round. The 15th pick comes in at 1,050 points, the 16th at 1,000.

Tradedowns, Anyone?
It seems unlikely that the Jets would trade down from either of their two first-round perches, but just for the sake of argument, let's say Mougey and his personnel people want to get into Round 3 to recoup that pick that the previous regime sent to the Eagles in March 2024 to acquire LB Haason Reddick? There are some efficient ways to do that.

Trade 16 — This slot is worth 1,000 points on our trusty table. We're not saying any of these teams have "picked up the phone" but Arizona holds the second pick in Round 2, the first choice of Round 3 and the fourth selection in Round 4 (911 combined points).. Chicago has the 25th overall pick (720 points) and a second-rounder in a trade from Buffalo, 60th overall (300).

And might Houston, which rose to playoff status and thus fell to the draft's 28th pick, want to swap that first-rounder (660) and the third-rounder they acquired from the Giants (69th overall, fifth in Round 3, 245 points) to move up into the mid-first round?

Trade 33 or 44 — With those two second-rounders, the Jets could trade one to move back into Round 3 and acquire more draft capital. The 33rd pick could command two high third-round picks, the 44 could get high and low picks in Round 3 or some other equivalent.

One Final Green & White Reminder
Don't rule out the Jets trading down to acquire one third-round pick and one more veteran player. The team's pro personnel department has been in overdrive under Mougey. Over the previous 10 years, at this time on the calendar, the most traded players on the Jets' roster in any one year was five. Currently the Jets have nine players acquired by trade, with eight of them arriving since last August.

Of those eight, seven remain, with only WR John Metchie departing as a UFA after less than one season in green and white. And six of those seven— QB Geno Smith and S Minkah Fitzpatrick this year and WR Adonai Mitchell, D-linemen Harrison Phillips and Jowon Briggs and CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr. during last season— are either starters, frontline situational players or rotational mainstays.

Once more we'll say that none of these scenarios is a hint of what Mougey and the Jets will do in the days leading up to and including the April 23-25 draft being held this year in Pittsburgh. But as the GM said at the owners' meeting: "We're always going to have conversations. We'll see."

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