Field Yates, ESPN's well-traveled and highly experienced NFL insider, has his thoughts about the nine individual selections the Jets have in next week's draft. But he and nyjets.com senior reporter Eric Allen jumped right into the Green & White's big-picture pool during their Now Boarding podcast.
"It's not hyperbole when I say this," Yates began. "No team has a chance to change its roster complexion and its franchise's future more than the Jets over the next two years."
He obviously was casting a scout's eye toward 2027, when the Jets spend the rest of their draft capital haul from the Sauce Gardner-to-Indianapolis and Quinnen Williams-to-Dallas same-day November trades. And if you haven't done the math yet (which Jets fan hasn't?), Fields whips out his draft calculator.
"They have nine first- and second-round picks between this year and next," he said. "Three first-round picks next year, but now we're focused on this year. Four in the top 44, two in the top 16, three in the top 33 — no matter how you slice it, the Jets have a chance to dramatically alter their roster."
Yates toted up the Jets' view looking ahead. Looking back in franchise draft history, this year's draft at the current time (before any trades may or may not be made) marks only the fourth time that they've had four of a draft's first 50 selections. Here's how the first three of those draft foursomes and their Jets teams fared. We'll use 59 games as our cutoff, since that's how many games Gardner and Williams could have played in as Jets:
| Season | Jets Top 50 Picks | Jets RS W-L | PO berths-Gms-Ws |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1984 | DB Russell Carter (1a), DE Ron Faurot (1b), C Jim Sweeney (2a), TE Glenn Dennison (2b) | 34-25 | 1 - 2 - 0 |
| 2000 | DL Shaun Ellis (1a), DE John Abraham (1b), QB Chad Pennington (1c), TE Anthony Becht (1d) | 32-27 | 1 - 2 - 0 |
| 2022 | CB Sauce Gardner (1a), WR Garrett Wilson (1b), LB Jermaine Johnson (1c), RB Breece Hall (2) | 20-39 | 0 - 0 - 0 |
This sample size is small, and there were more reasons than just the four mentioned players in each of the above drafts for the team's next 3½ seasons to turn out the way they did. But GM Darren Mougey and HC Aaron Glenn didn't draft Williams or Gardner, and they looked at the record and the draft capital they could gain in trade. And so here are the Jets, perched at this potential franchise inflection point.
Who will the Jets turn to in this year's draft? Yates' mock and value thoughts are captured elsewhere on our website, but we'll say here that the ESPN analyst would like to see a "stickier" wide receiver than they've had recently besides 2022 first-round WR Garrett Wilson at No. 16 overall.
And he definitely sees an edge rusher wearing the Green & White at No. 2.
"I think the Jets' most logical and likely path two weeks out is to take a pass rusher with that second overall pick," Yates said. "They're sort of doing the dance: Who's the best player, but how much does premium position matter to you as well. It's easy in the leadup to the draft to dismiss positional value, and to a degree you'll see teams doing that every year. And I think this particular draft you're going to see that down the board, because you do not have a ton of blue-chip talent."
That being said, Glenn's mantra inherited from Sean Payton of "if you see someone you love, go get him" will be on display in Pittsburgh on the nights of April 23-25. but who does Yates like for AG and the Jets to start the dramatic reshaping of their roster? Is it Ohio State's Arvell Reese or Texas Tech's David Bailey? Higher ceiling in the future or more polish on the edge this year?
"I lean towards Bailey, two weeks out," Yates said, seemingly torn but only slightly so.. "I lean towards one of those two. Maybe it's 55/45 Bailey at this moment. If I had to do a mock draft five minutes after we wrapped up, well, the Jets obviously did address the pass rush this offseason, a blend of younger and older players, to impact that defensive front seven. But I don't know if there's a single team in the NFL that has enough pass rush.
"With Fernando Mendoza expected to go No. 1 to the Raiders, the Jets kind of have the beginning portion of this draft. And premium pass rushers are more valuable than any position except for quarterback. Just follow the money. ... Great pass rushers are very, very valuable.
