The Final Mock Draft
Published: 04-27-07
Expert analysis on NFL football
The stories haven't changed much this week as teams wrap up their evaluations and do a final stack of the board. Every general manager and personnel man has not only reviewed all the necessary football information on each player but they have also done security checks and medical checks and made notes from interviews and visits. And they have placed enough phone calls to reach E.T. for the sequel.
The stage is set for every possible deal. Teams have made their wish lists and know how far they will have to move up to get the player they want or how far down they can move and still get their man while stockpiling additional picks and players. Some team (can you say the Lions?) is sure to throw a monkey wrench in the whole deal, but that is why the personnel departments spend so much time trying to anticipate every possible scenario, so when their 15 minutes start melting off the clock, they can act quickly and assertively.
And now, our final mock for 2007:
1. Oakland — JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
Nothing changes here. When given the chance to draft a franchise QB — and the Raiders believe Russell is just that — all other needs and opinions fall by the wayside. If Josh McCown comes to Oakland, Russell gets to watch and learn. If no McCown, then the competitive Russell gets his wish and takes the first snap on opening day.
2. Detroit — Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
There are rumors that the Lions have already agreed in principle to a deal with the Buccaneers to swap first-round picks if Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson isn’t the Raiders' pick. We don’t want to sell Matt Millen short. He is capable of doing such a thing, but he would be crazy to do so. The second that Russell’s name is called, the Bucs will be only one of many phonecalls into the Lions' draft room. The Vikings, Falcons and Dolphins are all interested in this pick. Detroit would be justified in taking Johnson, who is better than Furrey, McDonald and Marcus Robinson, or Brady Quinn for Mike Martz’s offense. And Jon Kitna’s bruised body would be thrilled to see Joe Thomas here, if they can’t work out a trade. But chances are the defensive-inded Rod Marinelli will be happy to move down a few spots and pick up Adams, who will have an immediate impact on a defense that recorded just 30 sacks in 2006.
3. Cleveland — Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
In recent seasons, the Browns have passed on Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler. Can they really pass on Quinn, too? No. The team has some impressive skill players in Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, and with a solid runner like Jamal Lewis in place, Brady could be successful quickly, which will be key to the careers of Romeo Crennel and Phil Savage. Now they'd better spend the rest of the draft trying to find linemen who can help Eric Steinbach protect Quinn.
4. Tampa Bay — Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
Jon Gruden and company have their hearts set on Johnson by all accounts, and well they should. Johnson is the complete package, with rare size and speed and big-play ability coming out of his ears. The deal Tampa will have to put together to get him at No. 2 will likely include their second- and third-round pick, which still gives them a second-rounder to work with.
5. Arizona — Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt has targeted his offensive line as the group that needs to improve the most, but they need more big, powerful players to carry out his run-first attack. Thomas can be a dominating player in the league. If he’s not here, look for Arizona to try to move down and take Penn State’s Levi Brown instead. The Cards could get some interest from teams looking to get ahead of Washington and Atlanta for LaRon Landry.
6. Washington — LaRon Landry, S, LSU
The Redskins don’t want to make this pick, and if Landry is still on the board they will get calls from teams looking to move up. He’s a complete safety who is strong in run support, can play in man coverage, has great range and fits in any system. With Adam Archuleta gone and Pierson Prioleau coming off knee surgery, the 'Skins don’t want to hand the SS job to Vernon Fox. A tandem of Sean Taylor and Landry will also immediately make their pass rush more effective. Landry goes here, if not to Washington then to someone else.
7. Minnesota — Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
A bump-and-run corner who can cover all day, Hall is just what the doctor ordered for an improving Vikings defense that gave up way too many big plays in the passing game last season and has lost Fred Smoot.
8. Atlanta (from Houston) — Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
Atlanta would love to have a safety here. However, with Rod Coleman still effective but aging and Grady Jackson in the middle of litigation with the team (to say nothing of his conditioning and injury issues), Okoye adds some bulk to the interior of the Falcons' line and also brings the quickness and explosiveness they like in their attacking scheme. His ability to break down the pocket from the interior will make John Abraham and Chauncey Davis, who will replace Patrick Kerney, more effective pass rushers.
9. Miami — Levi Brown, OT, Penn State
The Dolphins secure the second coming of Richmond Webb and fill a top need in the process. Nothing in Cam Cameron’s offense works without the blocks up front.
10. Houston (from Atlanta) — Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
Guess what? We hate the Ahman Green signing. Guess what else? Green hasn’t played a full season since 2003! The injury knock on Peterson is misguided. He’s a power runner whose one-cut running style will work with Gary Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme.
11. San Francisco — Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi
Derek Smith is heading into his 11th season and was not particularly productive last season. Meanwhile, Willis had 137 tackles for Ole Miss and and can make plays all over the field. Scouts have some concern about his ability to grasp the mental part of the game, but in this defense he won’t have to make the calls right away. Mike Nolan can just plug him in and let him play.
12. Buffalo — Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
With Willis gone, the Bills will play Angelo Crowell in the middle and turn to their other pressing need at RB. Don’t concern yourself with the stories of Lynch’s value dropping. People are looking to poke holes in this kid, but it has little to do with his on-field capabilities. He needs to improve as a blocker and receiver, but he is an elite runner who can step in right away and carry the load.
13. St. Louis — Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
Branch is sliding down some boards, but he won’t get past DC Jim Haslett, who will be standing on the table in the St. Louis draft room in an effort to get this guy. The Rams couldn’t rush the passer without blitzes and stunts, which left them susceptible to the run. Branch will stand in and occupy two blockers, allowing the DEs to rush the passer and force the run inside.
14. Carolina — Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
There’s no denying Carolina's need at linebacker, but remember new OC Jeff Davidson cut his teeth on Charlie Weis’ matchup system in New England, the same system that has made Ben Watson a star. Olsen has the physical tools, speed and receiving skills to be better than Watson and will create some serious matchup problems for opposing defenses when teamed with Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson. The Panthers will get plenty of action for this pick, so if the right deal comes along, they could move down and get good players at LB and TE later in the afternoon.
15. Pittsburgh — Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
Carriker has the best size/strength combo of any end in this draft. He’s not extremely athletic but is a tough, competitive, high-motor, play-to-the-whistle type of player that fits Pittsburgh’s lunchpail mentality. He can play either end in the 3-4 defense or the strong side in a 4-3, or he can move inside and be an effective two-gap tackle. That versatility will be valuable as the Steelers transition from their 3-4 defense to Mike Tomlin’s attacking 4-3 over the next couple of years.
16. Green Bay — Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
The Pack will make a run at getting above Carolina to pick Olsen, even though GM Ted Thompson has never been one to trade up while running drafts in Seattle and Green Bay. Failing that, he will trade down, which is much more his style. We’re still predicting the Packers pick up Randy Moss for a third-rounder, so forget the WR here. They can pick up a starting-caliber RB in Round 2 from among any number of players including Antonio Pittman, Kenny Irons and Chris Henry. So they address their need at DE with Anderson, a polished pass rusher who has the size and strength to beat the tackle to the inside and is strong against the run. With KGB fading and possible done in Green Bay, Cullen Jenkins isn’t the answer. Anderson will play right away.
17. Jacksonville — Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State
The Jags had a lot of luck with the undersized Maurice Jones-Drew last year. Ginn, even if he can’t start, is a viable vertical threat who will open the field for possession receivers Matt Jones and Reggie Williams. Plus, he’s a game-breaking return man.
18. Cincinnati — Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
The Bengals will think long and hard about DT Justin Harrell and OLB Lawrence Timmons at this spot. But they seem willing to give young veterans Ahmad Brooks and Rashad Jeanty shots at the open starting LB spots, and corner is their top need. Revis is an outstanding athlete who will make plays on the ball, which Marvin Lewis will love. He’s also a dangerous returner, which means the Cats won’t have to rely on Antonio Chatman being healthy.
19. Tennessee — Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade are both gone, and with Brandon Jones being asked to step up as the big possession receiver in the middle of the field along with TE Bo Scaife, Meachem gives the Titans a viable deep threat and a player who excels when working out on the perimeter.
20. New York Giants — Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
Staley is a former TE and as a result is extremely athletic for his size. He has all the tools to be a great NFL starter on the left side for a long time to come. Luke Petitgout is gone, and converted OG David Diehl is scheduled to start in his place. The Giants can stick Staley in the lineup today and not worry about Eli Manning’s blind side for the next 10 years. WR and CB are also needs, but the draft is deep in wideouts and the Giants don’t want to reach for another corner.
21. Denver — Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State
The dismissal of Al Wilson makes LB a top Broncos need. D.J. Williams will move to the inside, and Timmons can be plugged in anywhere. He’s a versatile player who has some playmaking ability as a blitzer, in coverage and, most important, against the run.
22. Dallas — Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
Bowe is big and strong and will make the tough catch in the middle of the field. Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens, who could be gone after this year, are both entering their mid-30s and Bowe is a versatile receiver who can play in spread formations now, either in the slot or from the perimeter, and step in as a starter down the road. He’s a playmaker whom both Jerry Jones and Tony Romo will love.
23. Kansas City — Dwayne Jarrett, WR, Southern Cal
Jarrett has his detractors, and he did not work out well this winter, but it’s hard to ignore his production — the kid had over 200 catches and over 40 touchdowns in three seasons! That’s just 38 games! For a team that has been watching Samie Parker try to keep up with graybeard Eddie Kennison and finally traded away unproductive Dante Hall, Jarrett would have to seem like a godsend. Herm Edwards will motivate him and he will be a big, reliable target for Damon Huard and then Brodie Croyle, making tough catches and running with the ball in his hands.
24. New England — Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State
Age is catching up with the Patriots' LB corps, and Posluszny is the kind of tough, smart, competitive player Bill Belichick loves. He’s a blue-collar player who has the versatility to play any one of the four LB spots in New England’s scheme, which should make it easy to get him on the field early. He's not a great athlete but is a very good all-around linebacker who is aggressive against the run, can drop in coverage, and make plays in the backfield and from sideline to sideline.
25. New York Jets — Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
No matter how we slice it, things come out the same way for the Jets. Rumors still persist that the Green & White will work hard to move up and get TE Greg Olsen, but remaining where they are yields Ross, who has good height and speed. And though he’s only an average cover corner, he’s a playmaker who gets a great jump on the ball and will excel in the Jets’ zone coverage schemes. With their top need in the secondary now addressed, they will look to use their three additional Day One picks on needs along the offensive and defensive lines, at tight end, or at linebacker.
26. Philadelphia — Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
Nelson is a great athlete with excellent speed and range. He is a high-intensity guy on the field and is a premier playmaker who always seems to come up with the big play in the most critical moment.
27. New Orleans — Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
Mike McKenzie is still a good, serviceable corner, but Fred Thomas has become a liability on the other side of the field, lacking the speed and athleticism to turn and run with receivers. That won’t be a problem for Houston, who had one of the fastest 40 times at the combine. He lacks the proper footwork and technique to be a good cover corner out of the box, but he is an immediate upgrade for the Saints.
28. New England — Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB, Purdue
With two first-rounders, look for the Patriots, who have made more than 20 draft-day trades since Belichick’s arrival, to make a move. But if they stay put, Spencer is a good fit. He is physically strong and was extremely productive in college with 21 sacks and 26 tackles for loss. Look for the Pats to work him into the lineup as a stand-up wave pass rusher initially, and then, if they can bulk him up, he can put his hand down as a DE in a 30 or 40 front.
29. Baltimore — Ben Grubbs, G, Auburn
The Ravens won’t reach for a need here at the bottom of Round 1 but will instead take the best O-lineman on the board. Grubbs is a physical player with good strength and, as a former DT and TE, has the versatility and athletic ability to learn and play several positions along the line.
30. San Diego — David Harris, LB, Michigan
Harris is a limited athlete but a very productive football player who can chase down ballcarriers between the tackles. He’s a consistent player who won’t wow you but will be in the right place at the right time and make the plays in front of him.
31. Chicago — Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee
Some expect Harrell to go much earlier than this, but he is an excellent fit for the Bears' one-gap scheme where he can use his quickness and agility to penetrate and make plays in the backfield. At 300 pounds, he’s also big and stout enough to make plays between the tackles in the run game.
32. Indianapolis — Jon Beason, LB, Miami
Beason lacks discipline, but that can be taught. He is a very good athlete with playmaking ability. He’s an aggressive run defender and a capable blitzer. He can make plays in coverage and can play the middle or outside in Tony Dungy’s Tampa Two scheme.
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