Some Numbers to Crunch On This Weekend

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Randy's Radar

Some Numbers to Crunch On This Weekend

Published: Fri, October 10, 2008 - 4:25pm ET
Randy Lange

By Randy Lange

Lange is editor-in-chief of newyorkjets.com. He covered the Jets for 13 years for The Record of Hackensack, N.J.


File Under: Shaun Ellis, Bryan Thomas, Jerricho Cotchery, Laveranues Coles, Mark Gastineau, Joe Klecko, Brett Favre, Calvin Pace

10/10 — Here are a few choice numbers from the LSB (Lange Sports Bureau) to keep you moving through the last day of the workweek and on toward Sunday's home showdown with the Bengals:

Favre Batting .300

In honor of the ALCS and NLCS, it's worth noting that Brett Favre is hitting .300 this season.

Of course, this number means a little something different than it does to our baseball brethren, yet a touchdown drive rate of .300 is a similar gold standard for NFL quarterbacks. Generating touchdowns on three of every 10 possessions is what the best QBs do, and the only guys who do it for a whole season are usually named Brady, Romo and Manning, P.

But at the moment Favre has a .302 TD drive percentage (13 TDs on 43 possessions) and that is unofficially third-best in the league, trailing only Kurt Warner of the Cards (.340) and the Cowboys' Romo (.327).

To put this all in further perspective, if Favre were to sustain this pace for the season, it would be the first time in his storied career that he reached .300. Such a figure might well be the best in Jets history ever, or at least since Namath, although I can only verify that it would be the best since 1997.

Yakkity-YAC

Extrapolations from one-quarter of a season to a full 16 games are fraught with danger, needless to say, but here comes another:

Laveranues Coles is on track to have the best season of yards after catch in his nine-year career.

Coles, whose YAC has unofficially fallen from the 5.0-6.0 range from 2000 (his rookie season with the Jets) through 2003 (his first as a Redskin) to the 2.5-3.5 range in '05-07, is running wild after the catch this season to the tune of 6.3 yards after each of his 18 receptions from Favre.

Not to throw cold water on this theory right after proposing it, but a whole chunk of his 114 YAC have come on two catch-and-runs — 44 yards of his season-long 54-yard play vs. New England and 34 of the 41 yards on a late completion the next week at San Diego. High early YAC, like most high averages, tend to tail off through the course of a long season.

Still, the YAC dimension that was so stunning for Favre and the Packers receivers last season is evident with the Jets. Jerricho Cotchery, who had a career-high 5.1 yards after each catch last season, is at 5.1 again so far this year.

And since 1995, the Jets' best YAC for all receivers (WRs-TEs-RBs) in a season was the 4.4 in the Vinny Testaverde-led '98 season. This season's four-game YAC average is 5.5.

Sack-Happy

Here's another season projection from a four-game sampling. If the Jets continue their 13-sack pace of the first four games, they would have 52 for the regular season. That would be the second-highest single-season total in franchise history, trailing only the 66 sacks of the vaunted New York Sack Exchange pass rush in 1981.

Team sacks were official in '81, but individual sacks weren't officially kept until '82. So officially, the Jets have never had more than one double-digit sacker in a season, and unofficially they haven't had two 10-plus sackers since Joe Klecko (20.5) and Mark Gastineau (20) went 20-plus in that pass-rushing paradise of '81.

But this season the Jets have three players on pace for 10 sacks: Bryan Thomas (4), Shaun Ellis (3) and Calvin Pace (2.5). Can they sustain such a pace, so to speak? More data comes in on Sunday.

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Fans Respond

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Xavion Said:

Sun, October 12, 2008 - 11:40am ET

"Frank I too grow tired of your constant Mangini bashing Come on have some optimism about the team as a whole can you comment on anything but the coaching staff this isnt Team that is automatically 16-0 with a different coach. We have holes and we have flaws not all can be corrected with coaching..."

Offensive Comment?

Xavion Said:

Sun, October 12, 2008 - 11:43am ET

"One of those holes are on 3rd dn Nickle formations somewhere over teh middle we are missing for everything we praise about David Harris... He is no Jon Vilma, Vilma Had his forte He may not have made sacks but he was good in coverage and Fast to the ball. Not a knock On Harris I think hes agood fit but We should now see where vilma excelled. "

Offensive Comment?

Xavion Said:

Sun, October 12, 2008 - 11:45am ET

"Also those who have been in the nickle have been getting beat in the middle Im thinking Miller will def improve that once he is ready, Any chance he'll play today Randy might be a little late to ask though,,,"

Offensive Comment?

Sun, October 12, 2008 - 12:25pm ET

Randy Lange Said:

"Xavion, Justin Miller is inactive again today. The inactives are posted in my pregame blog, which went up a short while ago."