SOS and Other Schedule Matters

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Randy's Radar

SOS and Other Schedule Matters

Published: Thu, February 14, 2008 - 12:51pm EDT
Randy Lange

By Randy Lange

Lange is editor-in-chief of newyorkjets.com. He covered the Jets for 13 years for The Record of Hackensack, N.J.


File Under: New England, strength of schedule, 2008 opponents, schedule Patriots Jets

02/14 — The NFL's master schedule won't be revealed, except for dribs and drabs and rumors, until April, but all teams have known their 2008 opponents for a month and a half. And if Jets fans haven't taken a look at the coming season's strength of schedule, you might want to send out an SOS.

The New England Patriots have the league's "easiest" schedule.

Now that I've got your blood boiling, let me bring it back down to a simmer. True, the near-perfect Patriots' 16 upcoming opponents have a combined 2007 winning percentage of .387 (99-157), the lowest schedule strength among the 32 teams. The next most favorable schedule belongs to the San Diego Chargers — who lost to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game — at .422.

(The two toughest schedules by far, if you're curious, belong to Pittsburgh at .598 and Indianapolis at .594.)

So how is it that the team that flirted with immortality for 18/19ths of its season gets such a break one year later? Well, it's a combination of the Patriots not having to play themselves and so not being stuck with a 16-0 opponent's record on their log and of the AFC East's schedule rotation with two other low-SOS divisions, the AFC West and the NFC West.

One thing to keep in mind is that such rotational hijinks are going to happen from time to time, and rather than talking about how unjustly easy the Patriots' schedule is compared to, say, the Steelers', it's more important to look at the other teams within a division.

Indeed, the Jets have the eighth "softest" schedule at .457, the Dolphins are tied for 10th at .465 and the Bills check in at .449, tied for fifth. And all three New England rivals would have even nicer prospective skeds if not for having to play the Patriots twice each.

The other point to make is the relative meaning of the word "soft." Teams get tougher or less formidable all off-season long after etching their previous season's results in granite. Strength of schedule may be an indicator of how a team will fare the next year, but it is not a strong one.

For example, it's true that the Jets appeared to benefit in 2006 with a .465 SOS based on their opponents' combined '05 record, and that this past season was correctly viewed as potentially (and in fact turned out to be) more difficult when considering the opponents' combined '06 SOS of .516.

But the Patriots were undeterred in '07 by the NFL's third-toughest schedule while St. Louis (3-13) and Atlanta (4-12) weren't helped by schedules that were tied for fourth-"softest" in the league.

So it's not a good feeling knowing the team you annually need to pass to get your best shot at the playoffs has the least-imposing schedule around. But the Green & White's set of opponents is comparable — right on down to the four West Coast trips that both the Jets and Patriots will have to make.

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Row Said:

Mon, February 18, 2008 - 12:14pm EDT

"If we get Leftwich, I will puke. Once again I will remind EVERYONE ON THE FORUM, our DEFENSE didn't lose one game last year. OUR OFFENSE LOST 12 GAMES, take out a PR or a KR & we would have lost 16 games! We barely outscored the DOLPHINS. The front office NEEDS to wake up. Come on fans remember throwing 3 fades to settle for a fieldgoal in the redzone. Remember not running on 2nd & 3rd & 1? "

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Danny Said:

Mon, February 18, 2008 - 5:25pm EDT

"First lets start off by saying it was a horrible mistake letting pete kendal go. the front office better wake up and smell the roses not every good football player is going to fit all there standards. Randy Moss was good enough for Belicheck and we all see how that worked out. They cant be afraid to bring in some of these really good free agents, we have the money spend it.Wake up guys "

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Reply to Giovanni Said:

Tue, February 19, 2008 - 2:02pm EDT

"Hey Giovanni Leone. You said why is everybody getting on MANGINI because he was great in 06 and comes from Belichick. Well Giovanni Leone, did you say that for HERM EDWARDS when Herm took the JETS to 3 playoffs in 5 yrs? Herm had a BETTER playoff record than Parcells. Is there a DOUBLE standard for Mangini and Herm Edwards? What is the Obvious (Visual) difference when you look at Herm & Mangini"

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